Kei te pāngia te umanga ara konumohe o te ao e tētahi panonitanga hanganga nui i te tau 2026, e te pikinga o te tono mō ngā mahi aunoa ā-umanga, ngā hanganga pūngao hou, te hanganga matomato, me ngā rāngai kawe pūngao hou. Hei wāhanga matua o te konumohe whakaputanga me ngā āhuatanga māmā, kaha teitei, ātete-waikura, me te ngāwari ki te tāuta, kua noho ngā hua ara konumohe tae atu ki ngā ara ārahi rārangi, ngā reri whakairinga rā, ngā ara reti hanga, me ngā ara huihuinga ā-umanga hei rauemi tūāpapa nui mō te hanga taumata-teitei o te ao me te hanganga hanganga waro-iti. Ko ngā raraunga mākete o tāwāhi tata nei, ngā hihiri haumi ā-umanga, me ngā whakatikatika kaupapa here ā-rohe e tohu ana kei te neke te mākete ara konumohe mai i te tipu whānui tuku iho ki te whanaketanga kounga teitei, pumau, me te mohio, me te rerekētanga ā-rohe me ngā ia o te hangarau e puta ake ana puta noa i Amerika Te Raki, Uropi, Tonga-Rawhiti o Āhia, me Ōteania.
E ai ki ngā tātaritanga ahumahi hou mai i IndexBox me PW Consulting, i mau tonu te tere tipu ā-tau pūhui o te mākete ara konumohe ā-ao me te rēriwe whakairi o te 6.85% mai i te tau 2025 ki te 2032, ā, ko te rahi o te mākete whānui ka eke ki te USD 1.16 piriona i te tau 2025, ā, e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te USD 1.84 piriona i te tau 2032. He mea nui, ko te hiko photovoltaic solar (PV)ara konumoheKo te wāhanga te mea e whakaatu ana i te tere tipu tino kaha, e rēhita ana i te CAGR 5.8%, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki rua tōna tauine mākete i te tau 2035, e tautokona ana e te whakatinanatanga o te ao neke atu i te 500 GW o ngā kaupapa tāutanga pūngao rā tauine-pūnaha. Ko tēnei ara tipu pakari e whakaata ana i te pikinga ake o te mōhiotanga ki tāwāhi mō ngā painga hanganga me te uara taiao o te ara konumohe, i te mea ka tere ake te whakakapinga o ngā ara maitai tuku iho ki ngā otinga konumohe māmā i ngā ahumahi o te ao.
Ko tētahi o ngā au o tāwāhi e tino kitea ana i te tau 2026 ko te whakaurunga hōhonu ongā pūnaha ara konumoheme ngā hanganga pūngao whakahou, inā koa te tere o te urunga o ngā ara whakairi konumohe ki ngā mākete PV rā o Ūropi me Amerika Te Raki. Kua whakanuia e ngā whenua o Ūropi, e arahina ana e Tiamana, Wīwī, me Hōrana, ā rātou whāinga whakawhiti pūngao ma i raro i te Whakaaetanga Kakariki a te EU, e akiaki ana i te pikinga o te tono mō ngā ara konumohe rā tino tika, ātete ki te huarere. He rerekē ki ngā whāriki maitai waro tuku iho, ko ngā pūnaha ara konumohe e tango ana i te paerewa koranu Al6005-T5 pakeke he ātete ki te waikura tino teitei me te pumau hanganga, e urutau ana ki ngā taiao o waho tino nui pērā i te haumākū o te takutai me te hihi ultraviolet teitei. Ko te mea nui ake, ko ngā hoahoa ara konumohe modular kua arotauhia me ngā hanganga nati reti reti kua whakaitihia te wā mahi tāutanga i te papaanga tata ki te 40%, e whai hua ana ki te whakatika i te korenga o ngā kaimahi e raru ana i te umanga hanga PV tuanui arumoni me te ahumahi o Ūropi.
I Amerika Te Raki, ko te mākete ara konumohe te mea nui rawa atu, arā, ko te whakaputanga paerewa me te whakahounga mekameka tuku ā-rohe. Nā te Ture Whakaiti Pikinga (IRA) o te Hononga o Amerika kua whakauru mai i ngā kaupapa here takoha nui me ngā kaupapa here tautoko mō te pūngao whakahou ā-rohe me te hanga matatau, e akiaki ana i ngā kaihanga ā-rohe ki te tere ake i te whakawhānui i te kaha me te whakapai ake i te tiwhikete. I te tau 2026, kua tino rongonuihia e ngā kaiwhakarato ara konumohe matua o Amerika Te Raki ngā pūnaha ara rā kua whakamanahia e UL 2703, me te whakarite kia tutuki i ngā paerewa haumaru hanganga ā-rohe me te tiaki ahi. Ko APA Solar Solutions, he kaitākaro matua ā-rohe, i whakarewa mana i tana turanga whakaputa hou i Bryan, Ohio, me te arotahi ki te R&D me te hanga i ngā pūnaha whakairi ara konumohe TITAN me Ready Rack paerewa teitei, e whakapai ake ana i te kaha tuku ā-rohe o ngā hua ara konumohe kounga teitei i te mākete o Amerika Te Raki. I taua wā, ko te ngaru whakapai ake o te rāngai aunoatanga ahumahi o Amerika kua akiaki i te tono nui mō ngā ara konumohe raina tika, e whakamahia whānuitia ana i roto i ngā raina whakaputa atamai, ngā pūnaha reti karetao, me ngā taputapu whakahaere aunoa, e pana ana i te whakahoutanga o ngā hangarau tukatuka ara konumohe tino tika, iti-waku.
Ko te mākete ara konumohe o Ūropi e tohuhia ana e tōna aro nui ki te ōhanga porowhita me ngā paerewa whakaputa matomato. Hei whakautu i te tikanga whakatikatika rohe waro a te EU (CBAM) me ngā ture taiao e kaha haere ana, kua whakatairangahia e ngā kaihanga ara konumohe o tāwāhi te whakamahinga o ngā rauemi konumohe hangarua me ngā tukanga whakaputa waro-iti. I te tau 2025–2026, i whakanuia e ngā umanga wāhanga konumohe nui o Ūropi te haumi ki ngā raina whakaputa hangarua konumohe tuarua, me te pikinga o te ōwehenga konumohe hangarua i roto i ngā hua ara konumohe hou ki te neke atu i te 35% i te toharite. He rerekē i te whakaputa konumohe tuatahi e whakawhirinaki ana ki te whakapaunga pūngao nui, ka whakaitihia e te hanga ara konumohe hangarua ngā tukunga waro neke atu i te 90%, e tino rite ana ki ngā whāinga whanaketanga ESG o ngā umanga hangahanga me te pūngao hou o Ūropi. Hei tāpiri, kua tere ake te whakapūmautanga o ngā tono hanga ara konumohe e ngā whenua o Ūropi, me te whakaputanga o ngā whakaritenga ahumahi kotahi mō ngā ara kuaha reti, ngā ara tautoko pakitara ārai, me ngā ara huihuinga ahumahi, e whakapūmau ana i te mākete me te whakakore i ngā hua kounga iti, waro-nui.
Kua puta ake a Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti me Ōteania hei pou tipu hou mō te mākete ara konumohe o te ao i te tau 2026, me te whai hua mai i te tere o te hanganga hanganga me te whakatakotoranga pūngao hou. Kei te kaha te whakatairanga a ngā whenua pēnei i a Whitināmu, Taira, me Ahitereiria i te hanganga teihana hiko photovoltaic me te whakapai ake i ngā papa ahumahi, e akiaki ana i te tipu tonu o te tono mō ngā hua ara konumohe utu-whai hua me te urutau-teitei. He rerekē ki ngā hua ritenga paerewa teitei i Ūropi me Amerika, e pai ana te mākete o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti ki ngā otinga ara konumohe whānui, modular e whakataurite ana i te mahi me te utu. E pai ake ana ki ngā kaituku ā-rohe me ngā kaimahi kaupapa ngā kete ara whakauru me ngā taputapu katoa me ngā hanganga kua tukatukahia hei whakapai ake i te pai o te hanga me te whakaiti i ngā utu hangarau. Kua kite a Ahitereiria, inā koa, i te pikinga o te tono mō ngā ara konumohe i roto i ngā kaupapa hiko solar whenua nui, nā te mea ko ōna rauemi whenua nui me ngā rauemi pūngao solar maha e akiaki ana i te whānui tonu o ngā whakaurunga PV tauine-whakamahinga, e hanga ana i te tono pumau mo te wa roa mō ngā pūnaha ara konumohe ātete-waikura e tika ana mō ngā taiao koraha me te takutai.
Ko te hanga atamai me te whakahoutanga hangarau tētahi atu ia o ngā āhuatanga matua o te umanga ara konumohe o te ao i te tau 2026. Kua whānuitia te whakamahi a ngā kaihanga matua o tāwāhi i te hangarau matihiko takirua, te hoahoa tika o te AI, me ngā raina whakaputa aunoa katoa hei whakapai ake i ngā tawhā hanganga ara konumohe me te tika o te tukatuka. Ko te hanga ara konumohe tuku iho i whakawhirinaki ki te wheako ā-ringa mō te whakatakoto tawhā, ka hua ake te tika o te hua me te iti o te whai huatanga whakaputa. I tēnei wā, ka whakamahia e ngā wheketere matatau o Ūropi me Amerika ngā rauropi AI hei whakatauira i ngā horopaki tono kaupapa, me te whakarerekē hihiri i te hanganga whakawhiti-wāhanga ara, te matotoru o te pakitara, me ngā whakatakotoranga awaawa hei whakatutuki i te whakaritenga whaiaro mō ngā horopaki rerekē pēnei i ngā pūnaha aroturuki rā, ngā raina whakaputa aunoa, me te hanga hanganga reti. I taua wā, ka whakamahia te hangarau tiaki matapae e hangai ana ki ngā raraunga nui ki ngā taputapu whakaputa ara, ka whakaitihia te reiti rahunga whakaputa me te whakapai ake i te hua hua me te ōritetanga whakaputa. Ko te rongonui o te hanga atamai kua tino whakawhāiti i te rerekētanga mahi i waenga i ngā puranga rerekē o ngā hua ara konumohe, e whakatakoto ana i te turanga mō te whakatairanga nui o ngā pūnaha ara konumohe paerewa puta noa i te ao.
Kei te hurihia hoki te tauira mekameka tuku ara konumohe o te ao i te tau 2026. Nā te pānga o ngā āhuatanga tōrangapū whenua, ngā kaupapa here utu hokohoko ā-rohe, me ngā rerekētanga utu pūngao, kei te neke te umanga ara konumohe o te ao mai i te tauira tuku kotahi te pokapū ki te whakatakotoranga tuku kanorau me te ā-rohe. Kei te tere ake te whakaterenga o te kaha whakaputa ara konumohe ki ngā mākete o Ūropi me Amerika hei whakaiti i te whakawhirinaki ki ngā kawemai whakawhiti-rohe me te whakarite i te pumau o te mekameka tuku. I taua wā anō, kei te whakauru tonu ngā mākete hou i Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti, Amerika Latina, me te Middle East i ngā hangarau me ngā taputapu whakaputa matatau o tāwāhi hei whakatipu i te kaha hanga ara konumohe ā-rohe. I whakawhānui ake a Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), he umanga konumohe matua o te Middle East, i tana kaha whakaputa konumohe hangarua i te tau 2026, me te whakatakoto kaha i ngā raina hua ara konumohe iti-waro hei whakatutuki i te hiahia e tipu haere ana mō ngā wāhanga konumohe matomato i ngā mākete pūngao hou me te hanga o te Middle East.
Ahakoa ngā tūmanakohanga tipu pai, kei te aro tonu te umanga ara konumohe o te ao ki ngā wero nui. Tuatahi, ko te piki me te heke o te utu o ngā rauemi mata i puta mai i ngā raruraru mekameka tuku konumohe o te ao kei te pā tonu ki ngā hua o ngā umanga. Ko te kaupapa here whakahaere kaweake o te bauxite i Guinea me te tohatoha koretake o ngā rauemi pūngao hou o te ao ka arahi ki ngā utu konumohe tuatahi kāore i te pumau, ka puta he pēhanga utu ki ngā kaihanga ara konumohe. Tuarua, he arai hangarau ā-rohe me ngā rerekētanga paerewa kei roto i te umanga. Ko te tiwhikete CE a Ūropi, te tiwhikete UL a Amerika Te Raki, me ngā paerewa ahumahi ā-rohe o ngā mākete putaiao ka piki ake ngā utu R&D me te tiwhikete o te tahora whakawhiti rohe o ngā umanga o te ao. Tuatoru, ko te tere o te whānui o te tono mākete kua arahi ki te korenga o ngā pūkenga hangarau teitei me ngā tīma hanga ngaio i ētahi rohe, ka aukati i te whakatairanga nui o ngā pūnaha ara konumohe tino tika me te atamai.
I te tirohanga whakamua ki te tau 2027–2030, ka mau tonu te tipu pumau me te pumau o te mākete ara konumohe o te ao, me te whakapūmautanga waro-iti matomato, te whakaritenga atamai, me te tuku ā-rohe hei huarahi whanaketanga matua e toru. Mā te haere tonu o ngā whāinga waro-rua o te ao me te tere o te rongonui o ngā taputapu hanga atamai me te pūngao hou, ka whānui ake ngā horopaki tono o ngā hua ara konumohe, ka kapi i ngā mara hou pēnei i ngā reera reti waka pūngao hou, ngā ara tautoko taputapu rokiroki pūngao, me ngā pūnaha aunoatanga whare atamai. Ka piki tonu te haumi a ngā umanga matua o tāwāhi ki te rangahau rauemi waro-iti me te auahatanga hangarau atamai, i te mea ka whakapai ake te hanganga paerewa ahumahi. Ka āta whakakorea e te umanga ara konumohe o te ao te whakataetae utu iti, ka neke ki te whanaketanga rerekē uara nui, kounga teitei, me te pumau, ka whakatuwhera i te wāhi whanaketanga mākete whānui ake.
Wā tuku: 28 o Ākuhata-2026