Imboni yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium ibhekene noshintsho olukhulu lwesakhiwo ngo-2026, oluqhutshwa yisidingo esikhulayo esiqhubekayo kuzo zonke izimboni ezenzakalelayo, ingqalasizinda yamandla avuselelekayo, ukwakhiwa okuluhlaza, kanye nemikhakha emisha yokuthutha amandla. Njengengxenye eyinhloko ye-aluminium ekhishwe ngaphandle enezici ezilula, ezinamandla aphezulu, ezingagqwali, futhi ezilula ukufakwa, imikhiqizo yethrekhi ye-aluminium ehlanganisa ithrekhi yokuqondisa eqondile, imisele yokufaka ilanga, ithrekhi yokushelela yokwakha, kanye nethrekhi yokuhlanganisa izimboni ibe yizinto ezibalulekile eziyisisekelo zokukhiqiza okuphezulu komhlaba wonke kanye nokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda ephansi yekhabhoni. Idatha yakamuva yemakethe yaphesheya kwezilwandle, ukuguquguquka kokutshalwa kwezimali kwezimboni, kanye nokulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yesifunda ndawonye kukhombisa ukuthi imakethe yethrekhi ye-aluminium ishintsha kusukela ekukhuleni okubanzi kwendabuko kuya ekuthuthukisweni kwekhwalithi ephezulu, okusimeme, nokuhlakaniphile, ngokwahlukana kwesifunda okuhlukile kanye nemikhuba yokuphindaphinda kwezobuchwepheshe evela eNyakatho Melika, eYurophu, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, nase-Oceania.
Ngokusho kokuhlaziywa kwakamuva kwemboni okuvela ku-IndexBox kanye ne-PW Consulting, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium eqondile kanye nesitimela esikhwelayo igcine izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka elingama-6.85% kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2032, kanti usayizi wemakethe uwonke ufinyelela ku-USD 1.16 billion ngo-2025 futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyelele ku-USD 1.84 billion ngo-2032. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi, i-solar photovoltaic (PV)ithrekhi ye-aluminiumIngxenye yethula umfutho wokukhula okukhulu kakhulu, ibhalise i-CAGR engu-5.8% futhi kulindeleke ukuthi iphindwe kabili isikali sayo semakethe ngo-2035, isekelwa ukuqaliswa komhlaba wonke kwamaphrojekthi okufakwa kwelanga angaphezu kuka-500 GW. Lo mzila wokukhula oqinile ubonisa ukuqashelwa okwandayo kwamanye amazwe kwezinzuzo zesakhiwo sethrekhi ye-aluminium kanye nenani lemvelo, njengoba izimboni zomhlaba wonke zisheshisa ukushintshwa kwethrekhi yensimbi yendabuko ngezixazululo ze-aluminium ezilula.
Enye yezindlela ezivelele kakhulu zaphesheya kwezilwandle ngo-2026 ukuhlanganiswa okujulile kweizinhlelo zethrekhi ye-aluminiumngengqalasizinda yamandla avuselelekayo, ikakhulukazi ukungena okusheshayo kwemizila yokufaka i-aluminium ezimakethe ze-PV zelanga zaseYurophu naseNyakatho Melika. Amazwe aseYurophu, aholwa yiJalimane, iFrance, neNetherlands, aqinise imigomo yawo yokuguqulwa kwamandla ahlanzekile ngaphansi kwe-EU Green Deal, eqhuba isidingo esikhulu semizila yelanga ye-aluminium enembile kakhulu, engamelani nesimo sezulu. Ngokungafani nama-bracket ensimbi yekhabhoni yendabuko, izinhlelo zemizila ye-aluminium ezisebenzisa indinganiso ye-alloy ye-Al6005-T5 evuthiwe zibonisa ukumelana nokugqwala okuphezulu kakhulu kanye nokuqina kwesakhiwo, ezivumelanisa nezimo zangaphandle ezibucayi njengomswakama ogwini kanye nemisebe ye-ultraviolet ephezulu. Okubaluleke kakhulu, imiklamo yemizila ye-aluminium ehlanganisiwe eyenziwe kahle enezakhiwo ze-sliding nut ezi-sliding nut inciphise isikhathi sokusebenza endaweni cishe ngo-40%, okubhekana ngempumelelo nokuntuleka kwabasebenzi okuqhubekayo okuhlupha imboni yokwakha i-PV yezentengiselwano neyezimboni yaseYurophu.
ENyakatho Melika, imakethe yethrekhi ye-aluminium ibuswa ukukhiqizwa okujwayelekile kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwe-supply chain yendawo. UMthetho Wokunciphisa Ukwehla Kwentengo Yamandla wase-United States (i-IRA) wethule izinqubomgomo ezinkulu zezibonelelo zentela kanye nezinsizakalo zamandla avuselelekayo asekhaya kanye nokukhiqiza okuthuthukile, okwenza abakhiqizi bendawo basheshise ukwanda kwamandla kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesitifiketi. Ngo-2026, abahlinzeki bethrekhi ye-aluminium abahamba phambili eNyakatho Melika basakaze ngokugcwele izinhlelo zethrekhi yelanga eziqinisekisiwe ze-UL 2703, beqinisekisa ukuhambisana nezindinganiso eziqinile zokuphepha kwesakhiwo sesifunda kanye nokuvikela umlilo. I-APA Solar Solutions, umdlali obalulekile wendawo, wethule ngokusemthethweni isisekelo sayo esisha sokukhiqiza eBryan, e-Ohio, igxile ku-R&D kanye nokukhiqizwa kwezinhlelo zokufaka ithrekhi ye-aluminium ze-TITAN ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye ne-Ready Rack, okuthuthukisa kakhulu amandla okuphakelwa kwendawo kwemikhiqizo yethrekhi ye-aluminium ephezulu emakethe yaseNyakatho Melika. Okwamanje, igagasi lokuthuthukisa lomkhakha wezimboni wase-US liqhubekisele phambili isidingo esikhulu sethrekhi ye-aluminium eqondile, esetshenziswa kabanzi emigqeni yokukhiqiza ehlakaniphile, izinhlelo ze-robotic sliding, kanye nemishini yokuhambisa ezenzakalelayo, icindezela ukuphindaphinda kobuchwepheshe bokucubungula ithrekhi ye-aluminium enembile kakhulu, ephansi.
Imakethe yethrekhi ye-aluminium yaseYurophu ichazwa ngokugcizelela kwayo okuqinile emnothweni ojikelezayo kanye nezindinganiso zokukhiqiza eziluhlaza. Bephendula indlela yokulungisa imingcele yekhabhoni ye-EU (CBAM) kanye nemithethonqubo yezemvelo eqinile, abakhiqizi bethrekhi ye-aluminium baphesheya kwezilwandle bakhuthaze ngokuphelele ukusetshenziswa kwezinto ze-aluminium ezisetshenzisiwe kanye nezinqubo zokukhiqiza ezinekhabhoni ephansi. Ngo-2025-2026, amabhizinisi amakhulu e-aluminium aseYurophu andise ukutshalwa kwezimali emigqeni yokukhiqiza kabusha ye-aluminium yesibili, kanti isilinganiso se-aluminium esisetshenzisiwe emikhiqizweni emisha yethrekhi ye-aluminium sikhuphuke safinyelela ngaphezu kuka-35% ngokwesilinganiso. Ngokungafani nokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium okuyinhloko okuncike ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla aphezulu, ukukhiqizwa kwethrekhi ye-aluminium esetshenzisiwe kunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngaphezu kuka-90%, okuhambisana kahle nemigomo yokuthuthukiswa kwe-ESG yamabhizinisi okwakha aseYurophu kanye namandla amasha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amazwe aseYurophu asheshise ukumiswa kwezicelo zokwakha ithrekhi ye-aluminium, ngemininingwane ehlanganisiwe yemboni ekhishwe yethrekhi yeminyango eshelelayo, ithrekhi yokusekela udonga lwekhethini, kanye nethrekhi yokuhlanganisa izimboni, okwenza imakethe ibe yijwayelekile ngempumelelo futhi kususwe imikhiqizo yekhwalithi ephansi, enekhabhoni ephezulu.
INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ne-Oceania zivele njengezinsika ezintsha zokukhula kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium ngo-2026, zizuza ekwakhiweni kwengqalasizinda okusheshayo kanye nokuhlelwa kwamandla avuselelekayo. Amazwe afana neVietnam, iThailand, ne-Australia akhuthaza ngamandla ukwakhiwa kwesiteshi samandla se-photovoltaic kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwamapaki ezimboni, okuqhuba ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo semikhiqizo yethrekhi ye-aluminium engabizi futhi eguquguqukayo. Ngokungafani nemikhiqizo eyenziwe ngokwezifiso esezingeni eliphezulu eYurophu naseMelika, imakethe yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ithanda izixazululo zethrekhi ye-aluminium ezijwayelekile zomhlaba wonke ezilinganisela ukusebenza kanye nezindleko. Abasabalalisi bendawo kanye nabakhi bephrojekthi bakhetha amakhithi ethrekhi ahlanganisiwe anezesekeli eziphelele kanye nezakhiwo ezicutshungulwe kusengaphambili ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukusebenza kahle kokwakha futhi kuncishiswe izindleko zobunjiniyela. Ikakhulukazi i-Australia ibone isidingo esikhulu sethrekhi ye-aluminium kumaphrojekthi amakhulu elanga asemhlabeni, njengoba izinsiza zayo zomhlaba omkhulu kanye nezinsiza zamandla elanga eziningi ziqhuba ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokufakwa kwe-PV okusebenzayo, okudala isidingo esizinzile sesikhathi eside sezinhlelo zethrekhi ye-aluminium ezingamelana nokugqwala ezifanele izindawo zasehlane nezisogwini.
Ukukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile kanye nokuphindaphinda kwezobuchwepheshe kungenye indlela eyinhloko embonini yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium ngo-2026. Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili baphesheya kwezilwandle bamukele kabanzi ubuchwepheshe obuphindwe kabili bedijithali, ukwakheka kokunemba kwe-AI, kanye nemigqa yokukhiqiza ezenzakalelayo ngokuphelele ukuze kulungiselelwe amapharamitha esakhiwo sethrekhi ye-aluminium kanye nokunemba kokucubungula. Ukukhiqizwa kwethrekhi ye-aluminium yendabuko kuncike kokuhlangenwe nakho okwenziwa ngesandla kokusetha amapharamitha, okuholela ekuqondeni komkhiqizo okungaguquki kanye nokusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza okuphansi. Njengamanje, izimboni ezithuthukile zaseYurophu naseMelika zisebenzisa ama-algorithms e-AI ukulingisa izimo zohlelo lokusebenza lwephrojekthi, zilungisa ngokuguquguqukayo isakhiwo sethrekhi esinqamula isigaba, ukujiya kodonga, kanye nokucaciswa kwe-groove ukuze kufezwe ukwenza ngokwezifiso okwenzelwe wena kwezimo ezahlukene njengezinhlelo zokulandelela zelanga, imigqa yokukhiqiza ezenzakalelayo, kanye nezakhiwo ezishelelayo zokwakha. Okwamanje, ubuchwepheshe bokulungisa okubikezelayo obusekelwe kudatha enkulu busetshenziswa emishinini yokukhiqiza ithrekhi, kunciphisa ngempumelelo amazinga okwehluleka kokukhiqiza kanye nokuthuthukisa isivuno somkhiqizo kanye nokuvumelana kokukhiqiza. Ukuthandwa kokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile kunciphise kakhulu igebe lokusebenza phakathi kwamaqoqo ahlukene emikhiqizo yethrekhi ye-aluminium, kubeka isisekelo sokukhuthazwa okukhulu kwezinhlelo zethrekhi ze-aluminium ezijwayelekile emhlabeni jikelele.
Iphethini yochungechunge lokuphakelwa kwethrekhi ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke nayo ihlelwa kabusha kakhulu esifundeni ngo-2026. Ithintwe yizici zezombusazwe, izinqubomgomo zentela yokuhweba yesifunda, kanye nomehluko wezindleko zamandla, imboni yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium ishintsha isuka kumodeli eyodwa yokuphakelwa ephakathi iye kusakhiwo sokuphakelwa esihlukahlukene nesisendaweni. Izimakethe zaseYurophu naseMelika zisheshisa ukwenziwa kwendawo kwamandla okukhiqizwa kwethrekhi ye-aluminium ukuze kuncishiswe ukuthembela ekungenisweni kwemingcele futhi kuqinisekiswe ukuzinza kwethrekhi yokuphakelwa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izimakethe ezisafufusa eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eLatin America, naseMpumalanga Ephakathi ziqhubeka nokwethula ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza obuthuthukisiwe bangaphandle kanye nemishini yokuthuthukisa amandla okukhiqiza ithrekhi ye-aluminium yendawo. I-Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), inkampani ehamba phambili ye-aluminium eMpumalanga Ephakathi, yandisa amandla ayo okukhiqiza i-aluminium ephinde yasetshenziswa ngo-2026, yabeka ngenkuthalo imigqa yemikhiqizo yethrekhi ye-aluminium ephansi ukuze ihlangabezane nesidingo esikhulayo sezingxenye ze-aluminium eluhlaza ezimakethe zamandla nezokwakha ezintsha zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi.
Naphezu kwamathemba okukhula okuhle, imboni yethrekhi ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke isabhekene nezinselelo ezivelele. Okokuqala, ukuguquguquka kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa okubangelwa ukungezwani kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke kuyaqhubeka nokuthinta izinzuzo zebhizinisi. Inqubomgomo yokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-bauxite eGuinea kanye nokusatshalaliswa okungalingani kwezinsizakusebenza zamandla avuselelekayo emhlabeni wonke kuholela emananini e-aluminium ayisisekelo angazinzile, okuletha ingcindezi yezindleko kubakhiqizi bethrekhi ye-aluminium. Okwesibili, imboni inezithiyo zobuchwepheshe zesifunda ezisobala kanye nomehluko ojwayelekile. Isitifiketi se-CE saseYurophu, isitifiketi se-UL saseNyakatho Melika, kanye namazinga embonini yasendaweni yezimakethe ezisafufusa kukhulisa izindleko ze-R&D kanye nesitifiketi sokuhlelwa kwemingcele yamabhizinisi omhlaba wonke. Okwesithathu, ukwanda okusheshayo kwesidingo semakethe kuholele ekushodeni kwamakhono obuchwepheshe aphezulu kanye namaqembu okwakha ochwepheshe kwezinye izifunda, okuvimbela ukukhushulwa okukhulu kwezinhlelo zethrekhi ye-aluminium ezinembile kakhulu nezihlakaniphile.
Uma sibheka phambili ku-2027-2030, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium izogcina ukukhula okuqhubekayo nokuzinzile, kanye nokufakwa kwe-carbon okuluhlaza okuphansi, ukwenza ngokwezifiso okuhlakaniphile, kanye nokunikezwa kwendawo kwesifunda kube yizinkomba ezintathu eziyinhloko zokuthuthukiswa. Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwemigomo yomhlaba wonke ye-carbon ephindwe kabili kanye nokuthandwa okusheshayo kokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile kanye nemishini yamandla avuselelekayo, izimo zokusetshenziswa kwemikhiqizo yethrekhi ye-aluminium zizokwandiswa kakhulu, zimboze amasimu avelayo njengemizila emisha yamaslayidi ezimoto zamandla, imizila yokusekela imishini yokugcina amandla, kanye nezinhlelo zokwakha ezihlakaniphile. Amabhizinisi ahamba phambili kwamanye amazwe azoqhubeka nokukhulisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ocwaningweni lwezinto ze-carbon ephansi kanye nokusungula ubuchwepheshe obuhlakaniphile, kuyilapho ukwakhiwa kwezindinganiso zemboni kuzothuthukiswa kakhulu. Imboni yomhlaba wonke yethrekhi ye-aluminium izosusa kancane kancane ukuncintisana okufanayo okunentengo ephansi futhi iqhubekele ekuthuthukisweni okunenani eliphezulu, ikhwalithi ephezulu, kanye nokusimeme okuzinzile, ivula isikhala esibanzi sokuthuthukiswa kwemakethe.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Agasti-28-2026